10 September 2019

The Belt & Road’s global impact

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Janet Henry

Global Chief Economist

China’s ambitious ‘New Silk Road’ is benefiting countries worldwide

China's Belt and Road Initiative is one of the most ambitious infrastructure and trade expansion programmes ever undertaken. It involves 1,800 projects in 138 partner countries that account for 40% of the world's population and 15% of its GDP – numbers likely to grow even larger.

The initiative comprises a ‘Belt’ of six overland corridors tracking the old Silk Road between central Asia and Europe, and a maritime ‘Road’ of shipping lanes. Most partner countries are along these routes but the network extends to Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean and European countries include Poland, Portugal and now Italy.

It includes railways in Brunei, Laos and Nigeria, ports in Djibouti and Greece, and bridges in Croatia and Bangladesh. A wind farm in Chile, a potash plant in Bolivia and a dry dock in Trinidad & Tobago are among the projects. And as the belt-and-road expands, its impact on world trade and the global economy will only grow.

Estimates of the scale of investment over the six years since its launch range from $120bn to $575bn – though some suggest $1,000bn. Finance comes from Chinese policy banks, sovereign wealth funds and could increasingly include green bonds. So far, most projects involve energy and infrastructure development but there is now a growing emphasis on manufacturing and even services.

The belt-and-road has had a dramatic impact on international infrastructure development. China is now a net provider of foreign direct investment flows to the rest of the world and is already spurring more flows of goods, labour and capital between itself and its partners.

But for many partners it promises not just greater connectivity with China but also other countries along the corridors. Weak infrastructure can seriously impede trade flows, sometimes proving more costly to businesses than tariffs. Belt-and-road projects could lift global trade volumes by 1.7% by 2030, according to the World Bank, with improved infrastructure attracting further investment from other countries as well as leading to improved governance and environmental policies.

The World Bank also suggests that stronger regional and global growth resulting from new trade corridors could lower the share of the world’s population living in extreme poverty from 9.5% in 2015 to 3.9% by 2030.

The initiative is not without challenges, including corruption and cross-border disputes. Low-income countries must find the right balance between providing vital infrastructure and exacerbating already high debt. They also need to improve human capital and enhance productivity to ensure the growth is sustainable and the debt can be financed.

Some ambitious projects have had to be refinanced, renegotiated, deferred or have loans written off, but one clear economic success is the $8.75bn investment in Greece’s Piraeus Port since 2008, bringing it under the BRI umbrella. Piraeus is now the second-largest container port in the Mediterranean.

Disclosure and disclaimer

Analyst Certification

The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the covering analyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any other views or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Janet Henry

Important disclosures

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Underweight: The credits of the issuer were expected to underperform those of other issuers in the sector over the next six months.

Distribution of fundamental credit and covered bond recommendations

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All Covered issuers Issuers to whom HSBC has provided Investment Banking in the past 12 months

Count Percentage Count Percentage
Overweight 128 23 80 63
Neutral 274 51 135 49
Underweight 139 25 58 42
Source: HSBC

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Additional disclosures

  1. This report is dated as at 10 September 2019.
  2. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 06 September 2019, unless a different date and/or a specific time of day is indicated in the report.
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  1. This report was produced and signed off by the author on 09 Sep 2019 12:54 GMT.
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